![]() He very often swings over top of any breaking ball executed within the zip code of the bottom of the strike zone, as his swing just doesn’t enable him to get the bat on plane with the baseball down there. Over the course of the six-week Arizona Fall League season, opposing pitchers identified and exploited Toglia’s vulnerability to breaking stuff. Toglia has 70 raw power and is a plus defender around the bag at first, but there’s way too much swing and miss here right now, and I don’t think it’s just a matter of improving his pitch recognition.įanGraphs is clearly the low group on Toglia, dropping him all the way down to 34th in their current system rank as a 35+ FV player (after previously putting him in the 45 FV tier): Keith Law of the Athletic slotted Toglia 19th in his February 2022 system ranking: Toglia will also be in the mix for big league reps at first base in 2023 and has plus raw power, though his bat control is lacking. Kiley McDaniel of ranked Toglia 13th in the system with a 40+ FV grade earlier this week, saying simply: ![]() He’s played some right field, including during his time up in Colorado and is more than athletic enough to handle a corner outfield spot as needed. He does offset the K’s by drawing a lot of walks (13.1 percent walk rate in his Minor League career).ĭefensively, Toglia has the chance to be a Gold Glover at first base, moving with ease and excellent range, terrific hands and a very strong arm. While he did that more consistently in 2022, he also struck out at a 30.1 percent clip in the Minors and he’ll need to cut down on his tendency to chase early in counts to have lasting success in the big leagues. He has at least plus raw power from both sides of the plate, and he’s shown he can get to it at all levels and hit the ball out to all fields. The signs are pointing towards Toglia being a three true outcomes kind of hitter. MLB.com ranks Toglia as the 6th best first base prospect in the minors as a 45 FV player, headlined by a plus power grade and a 65 on his fielding at first base: Here’s video of Toglia’s 2022 MLB highlights: Despite hitting many more homers (25 out of 32) from the left side of the plate, Toglia’s OPS was actually only slightly higher there than from the right side (.814 vs.805) and probably somewhat of a function of opportunity (only 25% of his PA were against lefties). In total, Toglia hit 32 homers in 2022 across three levels (5% of PA), striking out 193 times (31%), and walking 69 times (11%), close to a 47% TTO. Net, Toglia came in just below replacement level in his big league debut. At first base, Toglia’s numbers were good but in right field he was below average and was worth about -0.2 wins defensively in total in a small sample. As mentioned above, the Rockies split Toglia’s time between first and right field to get his bat in the lineup. Toglia’s 44 strikeouts and nine walks meant his TTO% in the majors was 46% - right in line with his minor league total, albeit moving a few of the walks to strikeouts. ![]() 216/.275/.378 (68 wRC+) with two homers, two triples, and eight doubles. In 32 games with the Rockies, Toglia got 120 plate appearances and hit. That was enough for the Rockies to call Toglia up to the Show on August 30th, after which he became a regular starter down the stretch. 333/.413/.758 with seven homers and seven doubles in just 75 plate appearances (178 wRC+). ![]() With Albuquerque, Toglia was on fire, hitting. The Rockies promoted Toglia to Triple-A Albuquerque in early August, where in the offense-friendly PCL he was 3.6 years younger than league average. That included 23 home runs (18 from the left side of the plate) among his 37 extra-base hits, plus seven steals in eight attempts. ![]() In 420 plate appearances in his second go at Double-A, Toglia showed the same high TTO profile as before (30% K, 12% BB, 5% HR) as part of a. Toglia began the season repeating in Hartford, where he was 0.9 years younger than average. It was good to see 22 homers between High-A and Double-A, but the 142 strikeouts were a large concern. Toglia entered 2022 coming off a year in which he had 46% of his plate appearances end in one of the Three True Outcomes (28% K, 13% BB, 4% HR). Future Value: 40+, below average regular first basemanĬontract Status: 2019 1st Round, 40 Man Roster, three options remaining ![]()
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